Category: Covid-19

AI in the Fight Against COVID-19

2020 has been a disaster. The first quarter of the year is almost over and people have no other option but to sit inside their homes, while a China originated human-killing virus wipes a considerable amount of the world population. While ‘Thanos’ was an imaginary being in the Marvel Universe, his aim was no different. He wanted to relieve the world of half its population and restore balance. The COVID-19 is no different situation apart from the fact that killing innocent humans is not going to restore the balance on earth, not after it has been subjected to all the malicious atrocities that it has been subjected since the arrival of mankind.

The virus which is also known as coronavirus is said to be originated in the city of Wuhan, China and suspected to be contracted from animals to humans. As people kept mingling and travelling all over the world, the virus too was spread. The current situation is so bad that most advanced countries like the USA and healthcare dominant countries like Italy are on the verge of giving up. All the global leaders, dignitaries and citizens of most of the infected countries are just asking the same question. When will this end?

In the fight against coronavirus, artificial intelligence (AI) and Machine learning (ML) have all of a sudden great role to play. While doctors, physicians, pharma companies and scientists are directly engaged in this duel of humanity against the virus, AI and ML are now being used as human allies for the answer to we all looking to hear. 

How will AI and ML fight the disease?

For most of us, AI and ML are just boxed in computers. Apart from seeing AI and ML suggest products from our last google search, none of us has actually seen AI work in real-time. What most people would know AI as just a bunch of codes which work behind the scenes to make things easier in front of the screen. However, if you think so, you are wrong. You can not physically see AI and ML do its job, but AI and ML are contributing to this fight, a whole lot more than you can imagine. 

AI and ML can effectively track the disease spread and the trends which points out where the medical help is most needed and where the virus is most likely to spread. This helps medical professionals to quickly act and helps to curb the spread of the disease. AI or as we know artificial intelligence is beyond normal human learning and use its past learning patterns to quickly identify where the things could go wrong. Based on its learning and combining its previous knowledge with insights, it can predict where the disease could go next based on the population flow and density. 

Artificial Intelligence can also match the symptoms of COVID-19 and the required treatment or any other therapy that is required. AI is also streamlining the best treatments for the disease which we still await an effective vaccine. Not only this, but AI and ML are also being used to analyse millions of drugs, elements and formulas with high speed to develop a vaccine. AI might seem to be working at its full speed, but a vaccine is still a year or more away from being developed. 

Now coming to the other side, AI and ML must also contribute to risk management. AI is as good as 95% correct most of the times. With more and more learning, AI continuously improves and thus corrects itself. However, it is quite dicey at this point to depend on AI alone, especially when the data samples (available data on COVID-19) is very less. Will AI still be that effective when it comes to less available data and also predict the failures? This is still to be understood at large unless there is a huge amount of data available for artificial intelligence to learn from. 

For any organisation or company using AI and ML as a tool in the current crisis, it is clear that AI and ML are no more proprietary or experimental technology anymore. The current situation has help demonstrate AI and ML have far more usage and applications, especially when human knowledge and efforts seem to have seen a dead end.

China’s loss turns to India’s gain-2020!

Most of you reading this would just like me be sitting in your homes for over a month wondering – What next? If and when, this mother of all ‘Grey Rhino’ events, aka #Covid19 ends how do we go back to our lives and where do we start re-building.

Not wasting much of your time enumerating the Covid-19 chronology since Dec’19, I reckon that most of us have acquired PhD’s from the various Universities of Whatsapp/Google/Social Media in our understanding of this pandemic and what is being done to tackle it across each and every country around the globe. 

 In my note below I will try to ‘Buy into the Fear’ by showcasing the opportunity that stares at  India and its budding entrepreneurs across small, medium and larger corporations post this crisis. In all disclosure a lot of my inferences here have been made by analysing the sentiments across countless conversations with my colleagues/friends/thought leaders spread across a diverse set of industries based in India and the US . 

Before we go ahead it’ll be pertinent for us to understand where China stood prior to this event. This should help us all get a deep dive into how small the world is today and how ‘Globalization’ has been a powerful force for economic growth. Movement of goods, services, finance, data, and people across borders adds to GDP and fuels productivity growth. No country on earth has played this cycle better than China aided by a young population willing to put in high teen man hours/day in bettering their lifestyles and futures. China’s period of double-digit GDP growth in the mid-2000s was fuelled by even faster growth in the flow of goods in and out of China. 

As exports surged from just $257 billion in 2000 to $3.4 trillion in 2019, China became the world’s top exporter. 

In early 2019 Donald Trump, President of the largest consuming/importing country in the world aka the Unites States of America decided to take notice and change this status quo by waging a war of words and threatened a trade embargo against China.  

It’s only in the latter half of 2019 that these ‘Siamese twins’ – China & US realized that neither can do without the other. 

Below is a representation of what China exported to the world in the year 2019.

  1. Electrical machinery, equipment: US$671 billion (26.9% of total exports)
  2. Machinery including computers: $417 billion (16.7%)
  3. Furniture, bedding, lighting, signs, prefab buildings: $99.5 billion (4%)
  4. Plastics, plastic articles: $84.4 billion (3.4%)
  5. Vehicles: $74.4 billion (3%)
  6. Optical, technical, medical apparatus: $73 billion (2.9%)
  7. Knit or crochet clothing, accessories: $71.4 billion (2.9%)
  8. Articles of iron or steel: $69.6 billion (2.8%)
  9. Clothing, accessories (not knit or crochet): $66.8 billion (2.7%)
  10. Toys, games: $62.8 billion (2.5%)

China’s top 10 exports accounted for approximately two-thirds (67.6%) of the overall value of its global shipments. As seen above it’s a high chance that the cell phone or computer.

you’re reading this note on, or the TV that you’re watching or the furniture & lights you see around or worse your child’s favourite toys are all (you guessed it right) – ‘Made in China’. 

The world has literally been dependant on a game of mass scale production by only one country and that’s China. 

Now we arrive at the most critical question in our note today- Is China a TINA (There is No Alternative) market or can the world diversify?

This question gained fire in early Jan’20 when large companies across the globe started seeing supply side disruptions owing to a complete lockdown of all the export ports present within China. The world since then has increasingly started realising that the over dependence on one single country has come to hurt global GDP’s now. 

With the spread of the Covid-19 cases, a lot of questions have been raised on China’s style of governance and its secrecy with respect to key developments. In order to better understand whether China is really TINA we re-visit the China advantages in the points below: 

  1. Cheap Labour
  2. Lower manufacturing costs
  3. Higher production capability
  4. Better expansion and diversification opportunities 

Coming out of these Global Lockdowns from a new world perspective; of the four BRIC (Brazil, India , Russia & China) nations, there’s only one that possesses the above mentioned skillsets, scale and good bilateral global ties- INDIA!!

Yes! India has been a friend to the world exporting IT, Textiles, Agri and a host of other products since the last few decades. Now it would be theoretical and almost foolish to assume that India will take over the Chinese edge and be the new hub of exports. Let’s admit the fact that things in theory don’t necessarily translate into practise. But we are trying to chalk a path for that shift over the next decade up ahead.

Low Hanging Fruits 

Below are exports from China that result in negative net exports or product trade balance deficits. 

  1. Mineral fuels including oil: -US$296.6 billion 
  2. Ores, slag, ash: -$161.8 billion
  3. Gems, precious metals: -$39.7 billion 
  4. Oil seeds: -$37.3 billion 
  5. Copper: -$34 billion 
  6. Optical, technical, medical apparatus: -$25.7 billion 
  7. Pharmaceuticals: -$24.4 billion 
  8. Woodpulp: -$19.1 billion 
  9. Meat: -$18 billion 
  10. Aircraft, spacecraft: -$15.5 billion 

Within this very list India can opportunistically use its expertise and manufacturing facilities across MSME/Larger corporates to take away a bulk of the global business. Indian pharma capacities, metal manufacturing capacities, meat production is already of sizable scale. It essentially lacks efficiency and ability to scale 10x from here. 

This is where we apply the First Principles Rule and break down each industry capacities and start synergising with the underutilised ones. For example: A couple of years ago we invested in a toy manufacturing company in Pune. The toy product was the popular NERF series of guns for Hasbro Plc. Now Pune and its nearby manufacturing belts have been long time auto ancillary hubs sitting on huge injection moulding capacities that have been running at 30-40% utilisation levels since the last few years. We contracted over 45 different MSME’s to mould the plastic parts needed for the NERF gun; thereby saving both time and money in achieving a scale of 400crs a year within 18-24 months. 

The Chinese have learnt a lot of their manufacturing processes/skillsets from the Japanese conglomerates who were amongst the very first ones to set-up large shops in Mainland China. On 8th April’20 Japan has announced that it’s now looking at bringing both its talent and facilities out of China over the year up ahead. Historically India-Japan have shared exceptionally good relations which now can be leveraged to their peak capacity. Imagine a scenario where a Japanese knowledge team camps in India and teaches our local entrepreneurs the right processes to build at scale and achieve global QC standards. 

Hitting where it hurts

Imagine a near future where India using a global knowledge partner base (Japan, EU, US) coupled with access to low cost money clubbed with local innovation backed by a work force that’s aspirationally driven starts tapping into the Top 10 export categories of China- Electrical machinery, Cell phones & computers, Furniture, Plastics, Vehicles, Medical apparatus, Clothing, Toys. 

With companies like Samsung, Apple, Amazon, Xiaomi setting up India facilities that wheel of change has already been put into motion. Post Covid-19 the world will increasingly be ‘protectionist’ in nature and its literally the opportunity of a lifetime for India and its massive SME & MSME space. 

 Parting Note

I don’t wish to sit on the side lines and comment on things or worse blame/wait for governments to announce packages of relief and respite. For the last 73 years our whole regulatory system, the priority sector lending system has incentivised SMEs to think and stay small.
Small needs to grow because they are the biggest provider of employment. 

I believe in the quote- “Be the change you want to see in the world”

If India has to ever be taken seriously on global export scale then we need to radically change our DNA of business and open our arms to the new world out there. 

Is 5G Responsible For COVID-19?

5G has been in works for quite a while but it is still to be known when it will come into force completely. It is the next generation of mobile internet connectivity that will offer faster speeds and more reliable connections.

This faster network will bring about a huge change in the way we use smartphones and other gadgets. Consumers will get to experience internet speeds like never before, with average download speeds of about 1Gbps.

5G network deployment has already begun in a few countries like the US, UK, South Korea and China. But India is still too far away from 5G rollout. 

Network transitions like these require time and infrastructure. For instance, 4G phones appeared much before 4G networks were made available for consumer use. This is the reason why the smartphone industry has shifted its focus towards bringing 5G ready devices to the consumers.

There’s a lot of confusion around 5G and its future. Also, several theories have originated from 5G and Coronavirus. So let’s dive in to clear the air around.

What is 5G?

5G is the next-generation wireless network that will replace the existing 4G LTE connection. It will offer extremely fast download, upload speeds and more reliable connections. We will see a multitude of tech products that will be quicker and smarter than ever before. These networks will work in conjunction with existing 4G networks before transforming into completely standalone networks.  5G will completely reshape how we work and live our lives today. 

How 5G works?

A 5G network system consists of two main components 

  1. Radio Access network
  2. Core network

Radio Access network

A Radio Access Network includes 5G Small Cells and Macro Cells that form the core of the 5G wireless technology as well as the systems that connect the mobile devices to the core network. The 5G Small Cells have to be available in large numbers cause millimetre wave frequencies can only travel over short distances. These Small Cells help Macro Cells in wider coverage.

The Macro Cells use MIMO (Multiple Input, Multiple Output) antennas which offer multiple connections to send and receive large amounts of data.

Core Network

The Core network is responsible for the management of data and internet connections for the 5G network. It is designed to integrate with internet and cloud-based services. Moving further, features like network virtualization and network slicing for different applications is also managed by the core.

4G vs 5G

Speed

Speed is a major differentiator between two different generations of networks. 5G is expected to be 100 times faster than 4G. Meaning movie download times would reduce to secs from minutes. Streaming movies or games will not be a pain anymore.

Speeds like those are possible because most 5G networks are built upon super high-frequency airwaves, also known as high band spectrum. 

But these high-frequency waves cannot travel long distances and can be easily barred by hard objects, buildings, walls, etc. In order to overcome this challenge, a large number of Small Cells are installed in close proximity to one another.

Latency

Latency is the time taken by devices to communicate with each other. For instance, the time difference between sending a signal and it is received on the other end is latency. 4G network service offers low latency but with 5G there will be almost no latency at all. Lower latency will benefit technologies like autonomous driving, cloud gaming and more.

Capacity

A lot of devices connected to a network can cause congestion. Which results in slower data speeds and longer lag times while watching videos or downloads. 

With 5G we can expect significantly higher capacity than 4G. Which means more devices can be connected together without compromising with data speeds.

Myths around 5G and Coronavirus

The Coronavirus is spreading like a wildfire and with that is the misinformation surrounding it. One such myth gaining lots of traction is that 5G is spreading Coronavirus. 

Several social media posts, tweets are claiming that 5G is the sole reason for the outbreak of Coronavirus. While some other theories on the internet say that 5G technology brings Coronavirus by sucking human oxygen. But all these claims are false as radio waves do not carry viruses that cause COVID-19.

The outbreak of Coronavirus started from the city of Wuhan in China, somewhere around December last year. And a month before that China had begun 5G operations in the same region. Which has led to beliefs like these?

Keri Hilson an American singer made several tweets which attempted to relate 5G and Coronavirus. She wrote: “People have been trying to warn us about 5G for YEARS. Petitions, organizations, studies…what we’re going through is the effects of radiation. 5G launched in China. Nov 1, 2019. People dropped dead.” Keri’s theories were questioned by people and she was unable to justify her wild claims. Soon after which her management team stepped in and asked her to delete the tweet.

A post in a Facebook group called ‘Stop 5G UK’ said that 5G tech weakens the immune system of a person, and Wuhan people tend to be the first ones that experienced this viral disease as they are the ones that got the first access to 5G.

5G health concerns?

5G is new to the tech industry and concerns are being expressed about the technology’s effect on people’s health. These concerns are valid too, as a version of 5G runs on very high-frequency radio waves called millimetre wave. Millimetre waves cannot travel long distances, which requires more no towers to be placed in close vicinity. There are concerns that radio waves could produce harmful radiation resulting in brain cancer, reduced fertility and other illnesses.

The FDA and FCC say there’s nothing to be worried about. Most studies haven’t found a link between radio frequency signals from cellphones or cell towers and disease, the agencies say. But because 5G is so new, there’s no definitive way to know if it will cause long-term health problems.

“It’s a ridiculous concept,” said John Bucher, a senior scientist with the National Toxicology Program, a US Health and Human Services interagency program dedicated to testing and evaluating substances in our environment. “Each year, you get a new strain of flu that goes around. That’s what viruses do – mutate and move around that way, probably as long as there’s been life.”

As per Coronavirus is concerned it is a virus that spreads from physical contact. It doesn’t travel through radio waves. So you will not get it by using your smartphone, TV or FM radios.

Coronavirus Dramatic Impact On Luxury Sector

The Chinese consumer market is considered as the lion’s share in the luxury global market. But the virulent spread of Coronavirus 134769 cases around the world. For the international luxury industry, which relies heavily on Chinese shoppers, it’s already taking a financial toll.

The outbreak has dramatically reduced the number of shoppers in Chinese cities and made companies to shut stores. Travel restrictions also are curtailing the traditional flow of tourists to other destinations that sometimes host many visitors buying luxury goods. Chinese shoppers structure a few third of worldwide luxury spending, counting their spending inside and out of doors the country, consistent with management consultancy Bain & Company. That’s quite the other nationality.

 

To stop the spread of disease, travel to, from and within China has been curtailed. Stores are closed and even those that are open see a dramatic decline in pedestrian traffic . for instance, 150 out of Capri Holdings’ 250 China stores are closed, Ralph Lauren has closed half its 115 stores, and Adidas reports it’s temporarily pack up a “considerable” number of its 12,000 stores there.

 

The supply chain for goods beginning of China is additionally taking an enormous hit. Factories are traditionally closed for the Chinese New Year celebration, which this year was from January 25 through Groundhog Day, but in some regions, the shutdown has been extended through February 10, though it’s going to go longer depending upon the speed of infection.

 

But looking across China’s vast $14.3 trillion economies, Cowen’s Oliver Chen believes luxury brands are going to be the foremost impacted by the epidemic, as long as the businesses he covers depend upon China for a mean of 14% in revenues.

 

In particular, LVMH (17% of revenues) and Tiffany (17%) are most in danger, with Richemont (11%), Tapestry (10%), honker (10%), and Capri Holdings (6%) having less exposure there.

 

Farfetch is additionally heavily hooked into China, accounting for 28% of its business, but because it’s an e-commerce company, it won’t likely suffer the maximum amount as other brands relying upon in-store sales. Noting that wealthy Chinese consumers are within the habit of flying into luxury shopping capitals of the planet to form opportunistic purchases, Gandhi sees this halted, albeit people can get a flight out of the country. “Nobody’s getting to get on a plane and risk their health to shop for something.”

 

For some purchases, particularly the very high-end segment, he expects those purchases are going to be deferred and are available back once travel bans are lifted. except for cheaper luxury, like trend-driven fashion, those sales are lost permanently. “It’s an entirely different purchasing cycle.”

 

Most are relying on the Chinese luxury consumers to return roaring back after the pandemic subsides driven by pent up demand and therefore the symbolic meaning luxury brands hold for them.

 

“Luxury goods in China represent a way of accomplishment both at a private level but even more importantly, pride within the nation,” says the Jean Baptist Voisin who is the global strategist at LVMH. “While I’m not a psychologist, I hypothesise that the demand for luxury will increase once this ends.”

 

That is assuming that the consumers on which the posh market depends have jobs and remain willing to spend their income on luxury indulgences.

Apps in COVID-19 Times

What a time to be alive, isn’t it? Remember the time when you were slacking close to 10 hours a day and sometimes even working on the weekends without a day off. You were sick of it. And you were desperate enough for that much-needed break. Well, here’s your chance. We found out a few apps that might keep you occupied in this lockdown period. Assuming that you start your day by doing some chores in the morning like you usually would on a regular working day and then head straight to work. Things are a bit different unless you’re one from the ‘heroes’ category. Thank you for your never-ending patience and support! Coming back, the next step would be for us individuals is most likely an option to work from home.

ZOOM Cloud Meetings

Now, working from home can be fun for some and boring for others. Of course, let’s be honest here, some meetings are boring. You have no idea why you are a part of it. Until the Boss finally asks you for your precious opinion. Well, this app is going to help your Boss out. While you’re at home in your comfort zone, he can schedule a meeting with you and your 100 other colleagues. You just need a computer or a laptop or a smartphone and a decent internet connection for you to join in the meeting. But hold it, if you are thinking where am I gaining at this. Well, you are. You can show your clients your presentations and crack that deal which you have been dying to crack. All this by you sharing your screen with the respective members on the call. So much better than those darkroom PowerPoint presentations, where some are found napping. It is a decent app to catch up with your colleagues too.

Houseparty

 

Wait a moment. Let me proceed ahead with caution. Houseparty was in the news for all the right reasons, until people claimed that their accounts were hacked. Relax! That was a smear campaign started by somebody. Houseparty will be awarding you 1 million dollars (₹7.6 crores) if you manage to prove that somebody was spreading these rumours. Anyway, you are better off enjoying your quarantine period by spending quality time with your family members at home and for someone not that lucky they can do so by playing different games on this app while they are video chatting. Talk to mutual friends and still stay in touch with everyone. The application is really smart, it will alert your friends whenever you are back online on the app. You can even join them, drop a face mail if they have missed a call or just get in touch with them whenever they are back online. You can have a private party of your own too, by locking the rooms in which you and your friends are. Quite cool. A genius idea that was based on a simple concept. Talk to each other while you are playing with each other. Well, the application has gone viral ever since lockdown came into force. Maybe you too should jump on the Houseparty bandwagon and let yourself loose. Sounds fun? It is!

Bumble

This is no joke, virtual dating is a thing, you guys. If you have been sitting on the fence with dating apps. Now is the time to try them out. Many bored people are going to get on the app looking to have a decent conversation with people who share the same interests. So I popped up to look out for people who were exactly doing the same thing. What do you do when you’re in a lockdown situation? Chat up with strangers, and possibly get to know them better before actually meeting them once the quarantine period ends. And the app that I enjoyed using was Bumble. To start with, Bumble has three options for you to choose from. Whether you want to find dates, or friends to hang out with or expand your business network with like-minded individuals. It is truly your choice. Not that you only have to go looking for dates, there are interesting people out there who you can interact with. Every single person out there is in isolation and there’s no harm in trying your luck with someone special. You never know, the person you meet during your quarantine period might be the one who you could be spending your future with. You never know.

AmpMe

Once you’re done looking out for your future significant others, you might want to try this fun app too. It’s for being a bit romantic when you’re alone. No, not what you are thinking. I have no business looking for other things on this app but this one special feature I like to use. Suppose you have a special friend that stays away who has a similar taste in music. You both cannot listen to the same music together at the same time because we’re all isolating in our own houses. We expect you both too. Well, nobody is stopping you to do the same thing virtually. Yes, you and your special friend can play songs from YouTube, Spotify, and your Music library for free. All of that at the same time. Syncing the audio on both your smartphones. Again, all you both need is a fast internet connection and a good choice of songs. And, of course, you can restrict others from joining your private listening session. Apart from that, it gives you an option to chat while you are enjoying your playlist on YouTube or Spotify or your Music Library. It is a sweet way of enjoying the songs together. Or if you want to create a listening session for your whole group then you can ask other friends to join in. Try it out, you might want to ask your Bumble date to join you there. See, I gave you an idea already to do a fun virtual activity together. 

Starmaker

Are you tired of playing Ludo, COD, PUBG and what not? You might want to relax your fingers then. This one will rather test your vocal skills. Ever played an online karaoke game? No? It’s pretty simple. Ask all your friends to sing a chorus of their favourite songs and share them on the group. A fun way of keeping your friends and yourself entertained, no? Well, the Starmaker app does act like a karaoke machine. All you have to do is search for your favourite song and play it. The app will automatically collect lyrics and flash it for you as the regular karaoke machines would do. However, I found its instrumentals to be not as accurate but enough for one to have an enjoyable karaoke session with. And when you are done recording your first single, you will be given points and scores, which to be honest, I had no interest in tracking. All I wanted to do was record the single and share it with my friends. Also, they had a good laugh about it. Go on, try it out. 

Countries are getting lockdown for days and some for months. It is quite a serious situation out there. If you happen to read this, I am sure you come in the privileged lot. Well, hear me out on this. It is our responsibility to win over this situation. How are we going to do that? By staying home, following basic hygiene and keeping yourself fit. When all of this is over, you will come out of this as a more mature person who has seen through a tough period. For now, enjoy these random apps. You might thank yourself later for doing so. Stay safe, everyone!

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